Nick Jones of Gartner Research states that “By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently such that half of the applications that in 2011 would be written as native apps will be delivered as Web apps instead.”
Read more to see what we think.
This sounds great, but does it provide the full story?
Gartner believes that the most likely scenario is that HTML will become mature enough, capable enough, and widely available so that it will supplant native code for a significant set of applications resulting in the creation of many more HTML 5 Apps. HTML5 may be a standard output from many development tools and HTML5 mobile Apps will then offer access to more standard features and device manufacturers and OS providers will offer device specific extensions.
However, the alternative view Gartner presents is that all of this won’t happen and HTML5 Apps will not become dominant after all; reasons might include:
1. Native platforms will gain APIs and features that HTML5 Apps can’t match and so native code will be required to create competitive applications.
2. Network bandwidth and latency will improve more slowly than expected, and network congestion will increase making Web applications perform poorly and be less attractive.
3. Users will demand the features and usability of native solutions.
4. Platform owners will try to discourage Web applications because they are more portable.
What It Means in Service2Media’s View
What we’d say is that for most Apps people will choose the native experience over the web. This does not rule out the use of HTML5 for many Apps but means that each option will be used where it is most applicable. In our view the user experience is the primary issue. There are certain patterns in an App that can be implemented in HTML5 and certain patterns that can’t. Despite enhancements to HTML5 we consider that this will still remain as an issue and that native will also always be in advance of Apps using only HTML5 functionality. We believe that hybrid HTML5 App solutions will become more relevant by 2015 but that users will still prefer the more immersive native experience of Apps that maximize the hardware’s capabilities. The Service2Media App Lifecycle Platform can of course deliver such an experience and is future proofed by also supporting (embedded) HTML5 widgets.
If your’re interested in the discussion about HTML 5 Apps, read our earlier HTML statement:
